Tanodbayan: Bantay-salakay

No, that is not the latest Lito Lapid flick. It refers to the current troubles of our Ombudsman, or Tanodbayan as she's fondly referred to by law school buddy Big Mike. Now that her articles of impeachment are almost done, the battleground shifts to the Senate, where 16 votes are needed to convict. In former Pres. Estrada's case, he had a firewall of 11 senators that would prevent conviction (of course, this is on top of the fact that the case brought forward to the Senate was half-baked, at best). Let's see how each Tsene-tor would vote (there are 23, and Mercy needs only 8):

Liberal Party Bloc/Allies
(Drilon, Recto, Guingona, Pangilinan, Osmeña, Lacson, Escudero)

Obviously would vote for impeachment. They made this a campaign promise. At some point, they need Ping Lacson to come out of hiding to secure that 16th vote.

Nationalista Party Bloc
(Villar, Cayetano x 2, Marcos, Sotto)

They are the true swing vote here. Your guess is as good as mine. It would be worthwhile to note that some of them (or their loved ones) might have some cases pending before the Ombudsman.

Angara, Legarda

These two BFF's vote together and will probably vote against impeachment.

Erap/Gloria Opposition Bloc
(Enrile, Estrada, Honasan, Trillanes)

They are likely to vote for impeachment though it would be interesting to note that the two special prosecutors who handled Erap's plunder case are Mercy's arch-enemies. The enemy of my enemy is my friend nga ba, Jinggoy? Where Enrile goes is where Honasan goes.

Lakas/Gloria Bloc
(Revilla, Lapid, Zubiri, Arroyo)

Alam na. Diba?

The Miriam Bloc

Hard to tell, but based on her pronouncement, will likely vote against impeachment not because she thinks Mercy is innocent, but rather based on the legal merits of pursuing the case.

Mercy currently has six or seven Tsenators on her side and would only need to convince one or two more to be her firewall against impeachment. A lot is at stake here that why's dapat abangan ang susunod na kabanata.

***

Impeachment is clearly defined as a political process. It does not require the subtlety and careful analysis that is required of criminal proceedings. It is merely an act of accusation. It does not result in any loss of life, liberty or property.

It was awfully entertaining to see the railroaders before get railroaded now.

Sabi nga ni Erap at ni Kuya Kim, "weather-weather lang yan!"